Recent Wall Street bonuses hit a record high, signaling strong performance in financial services driven by increased trading, underwriting, and deal-making activity. But we are now entering a much more volatile environment, argues Evan Berta – an associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures – and that may dampen the outlook for parts of the sector in 2025.
Wall Street securities employment reached its highest annual level in nearly three decades last year, with 201,500 workers laboring across the New York finance industry, exceeding the previous peak seen in 2000.
Wall Street banker bonuses paid to employees rose 31.5% to an average of $244,700, driven by a strong year in deal-making and corporate debt issuance. The bonus-driven windfall is expected to generate $600 million more in state income taxes and $275 million more for the city compared to 2023.
The total bonus pool reached a record $47.5 billion, the highest since records began in 1987. “This financial market strength is good news for New York’s economy and our fiscal position, which relies on the tax revenue it generates,” said New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.
Risks & Reputation
Despite the booming numbers, there is increasing uncertainty in the economy and quickly shifting Federal policy changes that may dampen the outlook for this year. “Market volatility, the likelihood of more Federal cutbacks, and sweeping new tariffs under President Trump are all weighing in,” said Evan Berta, an associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures.
“Market volatility, the likelihood of more Federal cutbacks, and sweeping new tariffs under President Trump are all weighing in.”
JP Morgan’s chief economist recently estimated a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year and warned of the risks to the country’s reputation as a global investment hub if political instability erodes trust in governance.
For its part, Goldman Sachs now reports that the U.S. economy faces a growing risk of a recession as surging tariffs threaten to stunt growth, reignite inflation and lift unemployment. The Wall Street bank warned clients that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously.
Afterglow to Restraint
Goldman Sachs also increased its inflation estimate, slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1%, and bumped up its year-end unemployment rate outlook by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%.
Financial services firms are clearly enjoying the afterglow of a highly profitable 2024, but the mood heading into this spring is one of measured restraint.
This push and pull between record-setting performance and rising uncertainty is now shaping hiring strategies across Wall Street, say recruiters who specialize in the sector.
Where It’s Headed
While Wall Street is coming off a historic compensation year, the hiring market is now shifting into more complex territory. “The next few months will be shaped by how firms respond to a volatile mix of economic uncertainty, political change, and shifting talent expectations,” said Mr. Berta.
With bonus season in the rearview and new risks on the horizon, talent leaders are balancing short-term caution with long-term strategy. “The most successful firms will be those that stay nimble—adjusting hiring plans in real time and positioning themselves to lead as the next phase of the cycle unfolds,” Mr. Berta added.
Article By
Evan Berta
Evan Berta is an Associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures, specializing in data analysis, market mapping, and target list preparation. He plays a critical role in identifying and building out groups of firms in sectors of interest, including preparing strategic overviews of top potential targets for acquisitions. Evan’s analytical expertise supports the firm’s sourcing initiatives, particularly in identifying niche and emerging market opportunities, and delivering actionable insights on tight timelines.
