With demographic shifts accelerating and C-suite succession planning under pressure, the leadership pipeline is starting to show real cracks. Executive search firms are feeling it from both ends – senior leaders are aging out and top talent is becoming harder to source. The result: a brewing storm that is reshaping the economics, structure, and urgency of the search industry itself. Evan Berta, an associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures, sat down recently with Shawn Cole, president and founding partner of Cowen Partners Executive Search, to unpack what’s driving this shift – and what recruiting firms must do to stay competitive.
In a recent LinkedIn post that gained wide attention across the executive search community, Shawn Cole laid out his forecast for the decade ahead: intense demand for talent, shrinking candidate slates, partner retirements, industry consolidation, and surging compensation.
His message was clear – the model is shifting, and search firms that don’t evolve risk being left behind.
Mr. Cole brings a unique vantage point. As president and founding partner of Cowen Partners Executive Search, he leads C-suite searches across nearly every industry and has watched the market bend under the weight of rapid transition.
He sees both the opportunity and the risk: a high-growth, high-stakes moment that could either redefine executive recruiting or strain it to its limits.
Evan Berta, an associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures, sat down with Mr. Cole to explore what’s changing, how clients are adapting, and what this transformation means for executive search firms, recruiters, and leadership teams alike.
Strategic Outlook & Industry Impact
Shawn, you mention a coming boom in executive search revenue. What do you see as the biggest drivers of this surge?
The revenue boom isn’t just driven by volume; it is driven by price per engagement. While consolidation may have reduced overall volume, the price per engagement continues to rise due to increasing competition for talent, higher offer values, and inflation.
How far along are we in the leadership pipeline “collapse” you referenced?
The oldest Baby Boomer is 75; so we’re still in the early stages of the leadership pipeline collapse, but the signs are becoming increasingly apparent and frequently referenced in the media. In the C-suite, qualified candidate slates are getting smaller. Our industry has long made a habit of rotating Baby Boomers from one company to another, but that pool is drying up. As retirements ramp up, companies still have time to invest in successors and build thoughtful succession and retirement plans. This is the early warning.
“The revenue boom isn’t just driven by volume; it’s driven by price per engagement.”
Which sectors or roles do you expect to be hit hardest by the pipeline gap – and which will benefit most from the disruption?
More traditional industries like financial services and healthcare are among the most impacted. That said, the talent shortage is hitting the C-suite across every industry.
Talent Market Dynamics
You predict fierce competition for C-suite talent. What does that look like on the ground today?
Shrinking talent pools will inevitably create increased competition for the remaining executives. Boards that fail to plan for succession will need to get comfortable with having fewer options; often they will be more expensive and less conventional ones.
Are you seeing more clients prioritize internal succession planning – or are most still relying on external searches to plug leadership gaps?
The reality is, if clients had strong internal options, they wouldn’t be calling us. We’re often brought in to evaluate internal candidates who are still too junior or inexperienced for the role, ultimately leading to an external hire.
How will compensation inflation reshape the candidate market, especially for first-time CEOs and next-generation leaders?
While inflation plays a role, the real driver behind rising compensation expectations is the intense competition for qualified talent – both among competitors and from existing employers. Expectations are high, even from first-time CEOs. The CEO opportunity is no longer the exclusive gift it once was; with pay transparency at an all-time high, candidates know their worth and demand top dollar. Both parties may be taking a risk, but candidates have options.
“While inflation plays a role, the real driver behind rising compensation expectations is the intense competition for qualified talent—both among competitors and from existing employers.”
Executive Search Firm Evolution
You note that senior search partners are retiring, too. Is that shift affecting your firm?
This isn’t impacting Cowen Partners – we don’t rely on a traditional partner-driven sales model. Much of our industry still depends on individual partners and their personal networks to generate business. But as those partners and their contacts retire, that model is breaking down. Ask any sales professional, and they’ll tell you that relationship selling isn’t what it used to be. Today’s buyers want to do their own research, vet options independently, and make informed decisions before ever engaging with a salesperson.
Do you think the consolidation of search firms will improve or erode service quality for clients?
That’s a tough question. I believe clients deserve options, but too many options can dilute the quality of service and the industry itself – especially when some firms operate in the shadows, without transparency or best practices. For too long, our industry has relied on a ‘who you know’ model. But with consolidation and shifting buyer behavior, the traditional search model is evolving, and it needs to.
How will smaller, specialized search firms stay competitive in a landscape increasingly dominated by large multi-sector players?
Bigger isn’t always better. Consolidation doesn’t mean smaller firms will disappear – niche firms will absolutely continue to thrive. Our industry has long had too many options, and some level of consolidation or streamlining is good for everyone. Many search partners and firm owners are retiring or selling, which is accelerating this shift.
“For too long, our industry has relied on a ‘who you know’ model. But with consolidation and shifting buyer behavior, the traditional search model is evolving, and it needs to.”
Looking Ahead
What does winning look like in this next phase for search firms – and what are the biggest risks?
The next 10 years will bring massive turnover in the C-suite, and our industry stands to gain. We’ll also see significant turnover within search firms, both large and small. The firms that survive and thrive will be the nimble ones, those investing in technology, delivering a better client experience, and focused on results. The clients you’ve been chasing for years will soon be looking for new options. Winning will come down to agility, innovation, and execution.
What advice do you have for aspiring executive recruiters entering the industry right now?
The real differentiator in our industry, now and always, is gaining exposure to sales and client services. It’s about understanding where and why clients hire executive recruiters. Too many recruiters focus solely on fulfillment and miss the bigger picture: the value proposition behind the work. With AI rapidly advancing, research and sourcing will increasingly be automated. If you want a future in this industry, you need to be client-facing.
Article By
Evan Berta
Evan Berta is an Associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures, specializing in data analysis, market mapping, and target list preparation. He plays a critical role in identifying and building out groups of firms in sectors of interest, including preparing strategic overviews of top potential targets for acquisitions. Evan’s analytical expertise supports the firm’s sourcing initiatives, particularly in identifying niche and emerging market opportunities, and delivering actionable insights on tight timelines.
