The M&A Predictions That Shaped 2026

Dealmakers entered 2026 expecting a resilient but more selective M&A market shaped by private equity exits, deeper diligence, and AI. With more than half the year behind us, Evan Berta, an associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures, revisits Ansarada’s 2026 Global M&A Predictions Report to examine how those expectations are taking shape in the U.S. and globally, and what they could mean for dealmaking through the remainder of the year.

Ansarada’s 2026 Global M&A Predictions Report brought together 26 dealmakers from the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Australia, and New Zealand around four central expectations: M&A would remain resilient despite uncertainty, interest-rate relief could unlock activity, energy and technology would attract capital while consumer sectors lagged, and AI would become increasingly important to both asset values and transaction execution.

More than halfway through the year, the broad resilience thesis has held up particularly well. U.S. M&A transactions above $100 million rose 29 percent in volume and 88 percent in value year-over-year during the second quarter, according to EY-Parthenon.

PwC similarly reported that U.S. deal value reached $1.2 trillion through May, nearly double the comparable 2025 level, even as overall deal volume declined four percent. The result is a market that is active, but increasingly concentrated around larger, higher-conviction transactions.

Private Equity’s Exit Story Is Still Developing

One of Ansarada’s most important U.S. predictions concerned private equity. David Barnitt, founder and CEO of Attract Capital, expected the exit window to begin reopening in 2026 after funds spent an extended period holding assets, while Moa Capital principal Joe Boleski anticipated greater activity further down market as larger investors developed middle-market strategies and traditional middle-market firms searched for opportunities below them.

So far, that story has been more nuanced. PwC reported in their U.S. Deals 2026 Midyear Outlook that PE deal volume declined 34 percent during the first half, with capital concentrating in larger, higher-conviction transactions, while exit activity remained constrained. EY’s midyear analysis offers a somewhat more constructive picture: announced PE exit value increased nine percent from the first half of 2025, and 56 percent of GPs surveyed expect exits to meaningfully accelerate over the next six months. 

“The pressure to create liquidity hasn’t disappeared simply because the exit market has taken longer to normalize,” said Evan Berta, an associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures. “As more assets eventually come to market, buyers will be evaluating not only historical performance but whether the leadership team and organizational capabilities are strong enough to support the next stage of value creation.”

That distinction matters for the remainder of 2026. The exit wave envisioned at the beginning of the year has not fully materialized, but the underlying pressure behind it remains, potentially setting up a more active period as sponsors weigh trade sales, continuation vehicles, secondaries, and other liquidity options.

AI Moves From Theme to Investment Test

Ansarada also identified the “AI angle” as one of its defining themes for 2026, predicting that investors would increasingly judge companies based on whether AI represented an opportunity or a threat to their business models.

That expectation is particularly clear in the report’s U.S. section, where Mr. Boleski describes categorizing prospective investments according to whether AI will disrupt, enhance, or largely leave the business alone.

“AI diligence is increasingly becoming talent diligence. A buyer can acquire the technology, but realizing its value depends on whether the organization has the technical leadership, specialized expertise, and operating structure required to keep building after the transaction closes.”

the transaction closes.”

The market has continued moving in that direction. AI-related investment has accelerated dramatically, but the implication for M&A extends beyond acquiring AI companies themselves. Buyers increasingly need to determine whether targets possess defensible intellectual property, adaptable business models, and the internal capabilities necessary to deploy new technology successfully.

“AI diligence is increasingly becoming talent diligence,” said Mr. Berta. “A buyer can acquire the technology, but realizing its value depends on whether the organization has the technical leadership, specialized expertise, and operating structure required to keep building after the transaction closes.”

That mirrors another U.S. prediction from GrowthPoint Technology Partners managing director Alex Loukas, who argued that buyers would focus not simply on whether companies were using AI, but on how deeply it was incorporated into product roadmaps. Ansarada’s broader global outlook goes even further, recommending that deal teams incorporate technical, cyber, and AI risks directly into diligence.

Resilience Is Winning Capital

Another Ansarada prediction increasingly visible in the market is a flight toward quality and resilience. The report anticipated strength across energy, industrials, defense, technology, digital infrastructure, and other sectors benefiting from structural tailwinds, while consumer-oriented businesses faced greater pressure.

That pattern has become increasingly apparent in the U.S. PwC describes a bifurcated M&A market in which the transactions getting done tend to involve businesses capable of performing across multiple interest-rate, tariff, and economic scenarios. Industrial manufacturing has been particularly active, with deal value reaching $173 billion over the past year, driven partly by AI infrastructure, grid modernization, defense, and resilience-related investment. 

“The market is placing a greater premium on businesses where buyers can clearly connect leadership, specialized capabilities, and operating discipline to durable performance,” said Mr. Berta. “In a more selective environment, management teams that can execute through uncertainty become part of the investment case itself.”

This theme is not confined to the United States. Across Ansarada’s international contributors, energy and infrastructure remain prominent in Europe and the Middle East, while technology, cybersecurity, healthcare, and professional services continue attracting capital across several regions.

Globally, PwC now estimates M&A value is on track to reach approximately $4 trillion in 2026, up roughly 13 percent year-over-year even as transaction volumes decline—a further indication that capital is concentrating around assets buyers consider strategically important.

What the Second Half Could Bring

Taken together, Ansarada’s predictions look less like a forecast of a broad-based M&A boom and more like an early description of the selective market that has emerged. Deal value has accelerated, but volume has been less consistent. Private equity’s long-awaited liquidity cycle remains unfinished. AI has become an increasingly important valuation and diligence consideration, while resilient sectors and high-quality assets continue to command disproportionate attention.

“The businesses that can demonstrate leadership depth, defensible capabilities, and a clear path to value creation will be better positioned as buyers become increasingly selective.”

Ansarada also anticipated that greater uncertainty would produce deeper diligence and more complicated transaction structures. That remains particularly relevant as buyers evaluate tariff exposure, supply chains, cyber risk, AI disruption, and financing conditions while using earn-outs, rollover equity, minority stakes, and contingent consideration to manage uncertainty.

“The second half of the year may be less about whether there is capital available and more about what investors are willing to underwrite,” said Mr. Berta. “The businesses that can demonstrate leadership depth, defensible capabilities, and a clear path to value creation will be better positioned as buyers become increasingly selective.”

For U.S. dealmakers, that may be the most important takeaway from both Ansarada’s original predictions and what the market has shown so far. M&A has proven resilient, but the recovery is uneven. Capital is moving, yet buyers are demanding greater conviction before deploying it.

As the remainder of 2026 unfolds, the central question may therefore be less about whether dealmaking accelerates and more about which assets, leadership teams, and capabilities prove strong enough to capture the capital waiting on the sidelines.