BCG Says Dealmakers Are Learning To Win In Uncertainty

After years of volatility, global M&A is no longer defined by stop-start cycles — it is being reshaped by how executives respond to uncertainty itself. Rather than retreating, seasoned dealmakers are using today’s conditions to reposition portfolios, sharpen strategy, and build long-term advantage. Leo Cummings, an associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures, examines new insights from Boston Consulting Group and what they signal for leadership, talent, and execution in the next phase of dealmaking.

Global M&A activity is showing signs of recovery, but not a return to the playbook of the last cycle. 

According to Boston Consulting Group’s 2025 M&A Report, global deal value rose 10 percent in the first nine months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, even as geopolitical tension, regulatory shifts, and macro uncertainty continue to weigh on confidence.

What’s emerging is a more disciplined form of dealmaking. BCG’s research shows that volatility is no longer viewed simply as a risk to be managed, but as an environment that rewards precision. 

Executives therefore are prioritizing targeted acquisitions, regional focus, and clear value theses over large, complex bets that stretch integration capacity.

For leadership teams, this marks a shift in expectations. Boards and investors are no longer asking whether to do deals, but how leaders are building the institutional capability to execute M&A consistently — especially when conditions are unclear.

Uncertainty Is Driving Strategy, Not Paralysis

BCG’s analysis challenges the idea that uncertainty suppresses dealmaking altogether. While average deal sizes fall sharply during volatile periods, overall deal volume actually rises, driven by a surge in smaller, targeted transactions. In periods of heightened uncertainty, deal volume increases by more than 25 percent, largely through sub-$50 million acquisitions.

“This is a clear signal that M&A has become a strategic tool, not a timing exercise,” said Leo Cummings, an associate at Hunt Scanlon Ventures. “Experienced acquirers aren’t waiting for perfect clarity — they’re using uncertainty to consolidate, build capability, and strengthen their core.”

“M&A has become a strategic tool, not a timing exercise.”

BCG finds that during uncertain periods, acquirers overwhelmingly favor same-industry and near-home deals, while large cross-industry and distant cross-border transactions decline sharply. The message is not caution for its own sake, but focus: dealmakers are choosing moves they know they can integrate and execute.

Experience Separates Winners From Everyone Else

One of the report’s most consistent findings is the performance gap between experienced and inexperienced acquirers. During periods of uncertainty, two-year relative shareholder returns turn negative overall — but experienced acquirers still generate positive returns, while inexperienced acquirers underperform significantly.

BCG attributes this advantage to institutional muscle: repeatable M&A processes, disciplined diligence, faster execution, and stronger post-merger integration. These organizations treat M&A as an always-on capability embedded in strategy, not a one-off event.

“You can’t build M&A capability in the middle of a storm.The firms that outperform have already invested in the people, processes, and judgment required to move decisively.”

“This reinforces why leadership continuity and deal experience matter so much,” Mr. Cummings noted. “You can’t build M&A capability in the middle of a storm. The firms that outperform have already invested in the people, processes, and judgment required to move decisively.”

Smaller Deals, Higher Discipline

During volatile periods, average deal values drop by more than 30 percent, while valuation multiples and premiums on smaller targets rise. Competition for quality assets intensifies, even as large headline deals become harder to justify.

At the same time, acquirers increasingly favor stock-based financing to preserve liquidity, and deal timelines lengthen as diligence becomes more rigorous. These shifts place greater pressure on leadership teams to communicate clearly, maintain momentum, and retain key talent through longer integration cycles.

“Smaller deals don’t mean lower stakes,” said Mr. Cummings. “They demand just as much leadership focus — often more — because the margin for error is thinner and execution discipline is everything.”

Cross-Border Value Is Narrowing, Not Disappearing

Cross-border M&A now represents roughly 30 percent of global deal value, down from nearly 50 percent at its peak in 2007. 

But BCG’s data shows that not all cross-border deals are equal. Intra-regional transactions — those within the same geographic region — outperform both domestic and long-distance cross-border deals, delivering the strongest relative returns.

The implication is clear: international expansion still creates value when complexity is manageable. Cultural familiarity, regulatory alignment, and operational proximity increasingly determine success.

“In a world where uncertainty is persistent, leaders are being evaluated on their ability to execute strategy through M&A — not just identify opportunities.”

“For leadership teams, this puts integration capability front and center,” Mr. Cummings said. “Cross-border success today is less about ambition and more about cultural alignment, leadership stability, and execution readiness.”

What This Means for Talent and Leadership

BCG’s findings reinforce a broader trend reshaping executive expectations. In a world where uncertainty is persistent, leaders are being evaluated on their ability to execute strategy through M&A — not just identify opportunities.

That raises the bar for CEOs, CFOs, corporate development leaders, and functional executives who play critical roles in diligence, integration, and value creation. Boards are prioritizing leaders with pattern recognition, operational judgment, and the ability to manage complexity across cycles.

“M&A is no longer episodic — it is foundational,” said Mr. Cummings. “The organizations that win will be those with leaders who can operate with discipline, communicate through uncertainty, and build durable deal capabilities over time.” 

Uncertainty, he said, is not a reason to stand still. “For prepared leaders, it is where advantage is built.”